BLUF: Nepal Floods
You have probably already seen the terrible footage of the flash floods that struck Nepal earlier this week, which have led to the tragic deaths of more than 1,200 people, with another 4,000 still missing.
What you have probably also seen is the online discourse around the event, with theories about the cause of the flood being speculated upon by keyboard warriors, experts, and government officials alike. While the cause of the disaster still remains somewhat unclear, what has become obvious is that many commentators have quickly rushed to judgment, regardless of what may or may not have actually happened.
The two main initial theories seem straightforward on first blush. One suggests this is just the latest in a string of climate disasters caused by rising temperatures and melting ice, even high up on the Himalayan plateau. The other speculates that the destruction was wrought as a consequence of China's overeager and less-than-safe construction practices in an attempt to capture the source of Asia's water tower.
What both these positions share is a fixation on serving an explanation that fits our biases and gives in to speculation rather than facts. Whether that is a predilection for fighting the negative effects of climate change or a desire to highlight the abuses of the CCP. While Beijing's efforts to hide information from the public, international observers, and even the government of its stricken neighbor Nepal are certainly suspicious, that does not equal culpability. Nor does it mean the surge of water was necessarily a consequence of carbon emissions warming the atmosphere. At best, it demonstrates a poor job of saving face.
In reality, the closest Chinese dam project to the source of the flood is almost 1,000km away, and scientists remain uncertain that the floods were caused by rising temperatures. Rather, the blunt and simple answer might just be, as described to The New York Times by Daniel Shugar, a geologist at the University of Calgary, that, "essentially, a chunk of the mountainside collapsed."
As we discussed last week in the BLUF, it can be easy to rush to judgment and speculate when a news cycle is in full swing, especially when issues of great importance, like our national security, lie in the balance. To do good work, however, we must push ourselves to step back, examine the facts, set our biases aside, and approach our most important problems with the critical lens they deserve.
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