BLUF: Unpredictability In Global Affairs
For those of us who perhaps spend a little too much time keeping up with world events, this week was rather, well, hectic. Syrian Rebels launched a fresh offensive taking the world, and importantly, the al-Assad regime, by surprise. Demonstrators in Georgia continue to protest the suspension of negotiations to join the European Union, with thousands taking to the streets of Tbilisi as they rally against the pro-Russia Georgian Dream party. And in South Korea, a mature democracy and staunch U.S. ally was roiled Tuesday night by the surprise declaration of martial law by President Yoon Suk Yeol.
The past few days add to what is becoming an increasingly chaotic geopolitical environment, one where the revolutions and convulsions of disorder, usually isolated to the fringes, have begun to encroach upon and substantively impact the international order. If this week’s news cycle tells us anything, it’s that these incidents are far from isolated and may point to a worrying trend of unpredictable, emergent crises which appear suddenly and without warning.
While analysts debate which geopolitical power players may benefit from one event or another, it is becoming clear that policymakers often wield little control to preempt or capitalize upon these kinds of events. The situation in Syria, for instance, is yet another disaster for the Kremlin and Tehran, one which threatens a crucial ally in the Middle East. To be clear, the situation is no gift to the U.S. either. As islamic fundamentalists reemerge with strength in Syria, they threaten to unravel more than a decade's worth of foreign and security policy efforts implemented across the past three administrations and beyond.
The unpredictability in global affairs we're witnessing isn't just a fleeting moment of chaos, but a fundamental reshaping of our international order. Adaptability is sadly no longer a luxury, but a necessity in a world where change happens with breathtaking speed and unexpected intensity.
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