BLUF: A House Full of Dynamite
Have you seen A House of Dynamite? Chances are, if you’re like us, you are already tired of being asked about the ending. Yet the film has undeniably sparked interest and debate, not just among the general public, but even at the highest levels of nuclear policy – prompting renewed reflection on how the world confronts the daunting specter of nuclear proliferation beyond the silver screen.
With the end of the Cold War, global attention on nuclear competition waned, supported by a series of Russo-American strategic arms control agreements between 1992 and 2010. However, as geopolitical rivalry has intensified once again, concerns about nuclear testing, modernization, and proliferation have surged into the spotlight.
Over the past decade, China has rapidly expanded and modernized its nuclear arsenal, while Russia has amplified its nuclear saber-rattling, escalating both rhetoric and action – with its conventional intermediate-range ballistic missile strike on Dnipro last year and recently its successful test of the nuclear-powered Burevestnik missile.
President Trump’s suggestion last week that the United States might restart nuclear testing ignited a chain-reaction of discussion. Questions about their nature and how our adversaries would respond have begun to be answered after yesterday’s test launch of an unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile from Vandenberg Space Force Base and Putin’s comments leaving open the possibility of renewed Russian nuclear testing.
Although President Trump indicated during the early months of his second term a willingness to engage China and Russia on proliferation, it remains to be seen whether all three heads of state will be able to move the needle. Regardless, with the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty set to expire next February, policymakers will have to tread cautiously as they face a new set of daunting decisions regarding the future of international nuclear proliferation.
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