BLUF: African Agreement

While the world watched Iran and Israel back away from open conflict last week, a quieter, but equally consequential breakthrough took place in Africa.

Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) reached a peace agreement—marking a rare moment of progress in a conflict that has simmered for decades. The two nations have been at odds since the aftermath of Rwanda’s 1994 genocide, when Hutu militias spilled across the border into the DRC, sparking a series of devastating wars and unrest that has persisted in various forms ever since.

One of the most destabilizing forces in the region has been the M23 rebel group, which reemerged in force earlier this year to seize the strategic northeastern city of Goma. Widely believed to be backed by the Rwandan military, M23’s resurgence revived international concern over regional stability, as well as the role of outside powers. While the peace deal signals a shift in tone between Kigali and Kinshasa, M23 was notably absent from the negotiating table—raising questions about the durability of the agreement.

Beyond its regional implications, the peace agreement carries significant strategic weight for the United States. The DRC produces roughly 70% of the world’s cobalt, a mineral essential for batteries, electronics, and next-generation defense technologies. Reduced hostilities could reopen access to one of the world’s most critical rare earth supply hubs—just as the U.S. ramps up efforts to reduce its reliance on China, which currently mines 60% of global rare earths and processes 85% of the global supply.

Though the U.S. played a quiet but meaningful role in brokering this deal, continued instability in the DRC’s northeast—and the exclusion of armed groups like M23 from the peace process—make this a situation to watch in the months ahead.

If you are interesting in receiving our full newsletter every Thursday, subscribe here.