BLUF: Agitation in Ankara
The NATO Summit in Ankara happened this week, and the story that dominated the conversation - unsurprisingly - had less to do with alliance unity than with a single fighter jet.
President Trump announced the U.S. is considering selling F-35s to Turkey and lifting sanctions imposed after Ankara bought Russia's S-400 air defense system in 2019. If it happens, it ends a seven-year freeze, removes a long-standing irritant in bilateral ties, and reopens Turkey's seat in discussions surrounding the world's most advanced fighter program.
However, getting there is anything but simple. Turkey was cut from the F-35 program because operating the S-400 risked exposing sensitive stealth data and mission systems to Russian intelligence. Former Secretary of State and CIA Director Mike Pompeo has argued the acquisition could endanger U.S. military technology and personnel while funneling money to Russia's defense sector. Congress made that concern permanent in the 2021 NDAA, which bans Turkey's return to the program as long as it holds onto the S-400.
This news was a good reminder to the Steer team that it might be helpful to share with you all the cliff notes version how U.S. foreign military sales actually work. Advanced systems like the F-35 move through the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) process, which is a government-to-government program under the Arms Export Control Act (AECA) that requires approval from the Department of State and the Department of War before Congress conducts a formal review. They are also governed by International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR), placing them among the most tightly controlled military exports in the U.S. inventory – distinct from the lighter-touch Export Administration Regulations (EAR) that cover dual-use commercial technologies. For a platform as sensitive as the F-35, that architecture exists for good reason.
Whether Turkey ultimately rejoins the F-35 program and acquires the aircraft will depend far less on what was said by the President in Ankara than on what action actually happens next. The S-400 still sits on Turkish soil, the NDAA prohibition still is the law, and the foreign military sales process still runs on its own timeline. Trump can lift the sanctions, he can commit to letting them purchase the F-35, but the law says what the law says. With November midterms barreling toward Washington, the rest, as is true with countless topics here in our nation’s capital, is considerably more complicated.
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