BLUF: Cuban Conundrum

Intelligence chiefs don’t often fly, at least not publicly, into adversarial capitals for high-level meetings. Especially not ones involving Cuban security officials featuring Raul Guillermo Rodriguez Castro, grandson of former President Raul Castro. 

The visuals, logistics, and timing of CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s visit to Cuba last week were a clear signal that the Trump Administration has not lost focus on the Western Hemisphere.  

Ratcliffe flew in on a marked U.S. government plane—quite a contrast to the unmarked aircraft former CIA Director John Brennan used during his island visit in 2015 amid the Obama-era thaw. And there was nothing covert about the visit this time round; the Cubans themselves broke the news and released photos, apparently keen to show they were hosting the U.S. intelligence chief. 

Yet, there was nothing ordinary about Ratcliffe’s message: Washington is open to economic relief only if Havana makes fundamental changes—particularly by dialing back its ties to Russia and China.  

As if to foot-stomp the administration's focus on the country, just days after the visit the Department of Justice filed murder charges against the elder Castro for his role in the 1996 shoot down of two “Brothers to the Rescue” aircraft that killed four Cuban exiles. In a clearly coordinated effort, following the DOJ’s announcement, which happened to be on Cuba’s independence day, the Navy carrier USS Nimitz sailed into the Caribbean where it planned to loiter for several days. U.S. officials also revealed intelligence reports that Cuba had acquired 300 military drones and recently began discussing plans to target Guantanamo Bay. Cuban officials have maintained they pose “no threat" to the U.S. base.  

There are a lot of rumblings in Washington this rainy Friday afternoon before a long holiday weekend, but whether the White House will soon take action against the regime in Havana remains to be seen. But there is no doubt in our minds that the Cuban government is sweating it out, and it's not just because their massive blackouts have stopped all air conditioning…

If you are interesting in receiving our full newsletter every Thursday, subscribe here.