BLUF: Kashmir Crisis

Clashes between India and Pakistan flared again this week after India launched airstrikes on targets inside Pakistan in response to a terrorist attack in Indian controlled Kashmir—with the strike dubbed “Operation Sindoor”. 

With two nuclear powers trading blows, the obvious question looms: what should the US be doing, if anything, to help this notoriously unstable relationship get back to where it was before the attack? And should the USG be worried about it escalating to the point of using nuclear weapons?  

Luckily, history would suggest this will teeter off before it gets too, too bad. Remember, the two sides have certainly clashed before—as recently as 1999, 2016, and 2019—without crossing the nuclear threshold.

But our hope is that US leadership and national security officials are paying close attention and taking steps to help deescalate, because this time does feel different. Pakistan is under severe strain from political chaos, economic freefall, rising separatist violence, and a surge in terrorism following the Taliban’s return to power next door in Afghanistan. Meanwhile, India’s global power has grown in the past 10 years, giving the once desperately impoverished country a significant seat on the global economic stage. 

A full-on nuclear exchange is a long shot (thankfully), but as Pakistan’s internal stability unravels, the bigger risk might not come from its more powerful foe, but rather from its own population. The nightmare scenario: a rogue group gaining access to a nuclear weapon decides to take a step the government is unwilling to make. If that happens, the consequences would stretch far beyond South Asia.

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