Seeds of Suspicion

Russia and China’s “no limits” partnership has expanded rapidly over the past decade—militarily, economically, and diplomatically—further accelerating following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But behind the scenes of public unity, there may be signs of strain emerging.

According to The New York Times, leaked Russian intelligence documents describe Beijing as an “enemy” and outline plans to counter Chinese espionage. The documents seem to reveal growing alarm in Moscow over Beijing’s attempts to extract military secrets—recruiting the Kremlin’s top military scientists, probing Moscow’s battlefield operations in Ukraine, and even eyeing Russian territory.

But do not get too excited about a division between our nation’s adversaries,strategic cooperation between the two states remains rock solid. China has become a vital economic lifeline for Russia, helping it survive devastating Western sanctions and maintain its war economy. In return, Beijing has secured cheap energy, access to raw materials, and advanced Russian defense technology in priority sectors like hypersonics and aviation.

But the partnership is increasingly imbalanced. The reality of Russia’s growing dependence on China directly clashes with Putin’s vision of a multipolar world led by sovereign and equal great powers. As the gap widens, Moscow risks becoming a junior partner (a little brother) to Beijing—both in theory and in practice.

The White House has publicly recognized the challenge posed by a Sino-Soviet axis—but also the opportunity presented by its increasingly unequal status. If these authoritarian powers keep prioritizing pragmatism over trust, the Trump administration may just find new avenues to pry them apart.

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