BLUF: Geopolitical Rasputitsa

Four months into President Donald Trump’s term, a key campaign promise remains unfulfilled. The Russia-Ukraine War, now in its fourth year, is still raging. Mediators representing western efforts for peace have once again come away from negotiations empty-handed, increasingly frustrated with the lack of progress and cooperation.

But on Sunday, President Trump may have just shook up the game. In his unexpected remarks, Trump blasted his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, voicing his displeasure with Russia’s increased aggression that manifested in its largest drone strike to date this past weekend. Putin’s unwillingness to come to the table, ignoring several opportunities for peace summits and perpetuating attacks through ceasefires, has clearly resulted in frustration for the Administration.  

The notable lack of productivity in negotiations has led leaders and world bodies to question the efficacy of the approach and respond to the lack of progress. For example, the U.S. refocused troops and armaments to key strategic objectives, such as Europe’s Northern Front. Germany has likewise established a permanent troop deployment in Lithuania for the first time since WWII, seeking to strengthen NATO’s eastern fringe along the border of Kaliningrad. 

With both allies and adversaries watching, Trump’s next move will undoubtedly impact public perception of the strength of his foreign policy chops and shape, or even potentially redefine, America’s role in Europe for many years to come. While we’re probably not telling you anything you didn’t know, our biggest take away from this moment is that President Trump’s unpredictability may just be what gets Russia to the table. 

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