BLUF: What Could Go Wrong?

With the August recess starting today, the window to pass all twelve FY2027 appropriations bills before the October 1 deadline is closing faster than you can eat a popsicle on a typical DC summer day. Congress hasn't hit that deadline in 29 consecutive years, and this year looks unlikely to break the unflattering streak. 

The future of defense appropriations has gained significant traction for good reason. With the U.S. sustaining operations in Iran and the Department of War (DoW) working to ensure military readiness, the topline attached to national defense funding has become the focal point for the entire appropriations fight. 

This week, the House passed its FY2027 NDAA on a near party-line vote, authorizing a $1.15 trillion topline for the DoW, up from $900.6 billion last year. But it is important to remember that authorization isn't appropriation. The NDAA sets policy and a funding ceiling, it doesn't fund the Pentagon. That's the job of the appropriations process, where the picture is even murkier. 

The House recently introduced and passed a stopgap CR that would fund federal agencies at existing levels through December 4 to avoid a shutdown. As Major General Arnold Punaro, USMC (Ret.) Arnold Punaro notes, as drafted, it excludes the $153 billion in defense funding provided through reconciliation, leaving the Department roughly $300 billion below its $1.14 trillion FY2027 request.

Looking ahead, both bills now sit with the Senate. When Congress returns from recess, it will have about two weeks to resolve defense funding, along with the eleven other appropriations bills, before facing yet another government shutdown. What could go wrong?

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